Floods, frost, and temperature variations reshape risk outlook in Howden Re’s latest Brazil climate report

Howden Re Brazil has released the fifth issue of its Brazil and Global Climate Impacts report, in collaboration with climate analytics firm MeteoIA.  The report provides an in-depth analysis of meteorological activity in Brazil and around the world from April to June 2025, highlighting regional disruptions and emerging risks. It also includes a climate forecast leading up to COP30, which will take place in November 2025 in Belém, Brazil.

This quarter’s report emphasises the intensifying climate variability in Brazil, where overlapping extremes, from historic rainfall to record-setting frost, are putting pressure on the country’s infrastructure, agriculture, and insurance systems.

“As Brazil prepares to host COP30, the convergence of environmental, social, and economic risks is undeniable,” said Antônio Jorge da Mota Rodrigues, Head of Howden Re Brazil. “Reinsurance must play a vital role in developing solutions that go beyond indemnification. In collaboration with the wider industry, public, and private sector, we must identify solutions that anticipate risk, distribute exposure more equitably, and, ultimately, strengthen resilience. At Howden Re, we are prepared to lead discussions on how we can support those most impacted by these weather variances by developing analytical tools today, to safeguard our future.”

Download the Q2 2025 Climate Report

Climate volatility again disrupts infrastructure and agriculture

April: Rainfall shatters records
April 2025 brought intense rainfall to the Southeast and Central-West. Teresópolis (RJ) saw nearly 700 mm of rain, over six times the monthly norm, while parts of Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo more than doubled their averages. These rains were driven by the interaction of cold fronts, Atlantic troughs, and semi-stationary high-pressure systems, which intensified instability across mountainous terrain.

May: Weather events in Rio Grande do Sul are reminiscent of 2024 flooding
One year after severe flooding in Rio Grande do Sul which was Brazil’s most costly climate event, the state experienced a new wave of flooding in early May. Cities like Cachoeira do Sul and Santa Maria recorded up to 225 mm of rain in a day, displacing families and damaging infrastructure despite federal recovery funds already exceeding R$100 billion. The state also endured post-frontal cold surges, with snowfall in Santa Catarina and the year’s first friagem event reaching the Amazon basin.

June: Cold wave hits crops
In late June, a powerful extratropical cyclone brought over 240 mm of rain to Rio Grande do Sul in a matter of days. This was swiftly followed by a severe polar air mass, pushing temperatures as low as -8°C in Urupema (SC) and triggering widespread frost across key corn, wheat, and coffee regions. Cold damage risk is now elevated for crops in Paraná, São Paulo, and Minas Gerais.

Outlook for Winter 2025: Hotter, drier, and potentially more disruptive

Brazil's winter (June–August) will likely be shaped by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions and a continued positive Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), according to MeteoIA models. The combination favours:

• Below-average rainfall in the South and Southeast, challenging water reservoirs and hydroelectric generation.
• Above-average temperatures across the country with possible heatwave events later in the season.
• Greater agricultural risk in states like Paraná, Mato Grosso, and Goiás, where soil moisture stress and frost threaten yields.

A reinsurance market in transition

Brazil’s reinsurance market is navigating a critical transition, from reactive to anticipatory. New instruments such as parametric insurance for heatwaves, already piloted in major cities, and region-specific agricultural risk mapping, are helping the sector adapt. The Q2 report includes a composite risk map for second-crop corn harvests, revealing very high-risk zones in Mato Grosso, Goiás, and southwestern Paraná.

With the Brazilian Sustainable Taxonomy nearing publication, and COP30 on the horizon, the report highlights how financial frameworks and climate analytics are aligning to support resilience at scale.

“The Brazilian Sustainable Taxonomy, by incorporating criteria focused on climate adaptation, becomes a catalytic instrument for investments that consider both the physical and financial impacts of imminent climate risks,” added Antônio Jorge da Mota Rodrigues. “Adaptability and resilience must be at the core of our financial systems moving forward.”