France Soil Drought Monitor: July 2026

France's soils are notably dry this summer. July data from ERA5-Land shows soil moisture across most of the country sitting among the three driest years on record, when looking at the first seven months of the year across 95% of French territory.

For context, when 2026 is compared against complete calendar years on record, 57% of France already ranks among the three driest years, and the summer season is only partway through. The January to July period alone is already comparable to most full drought years on record, despite peak summer dryness typically still to come and following a wetter than usual February. As at end of July, based on ERA5-Land derived SWI, ​75% of French territory would meet the threshold for the CatNat system for subsidence.

Soils typically continue to dry through August and September before autumn rains bring recovery, so the coming weeks will be worth watching. Current modelling puts the likelihood of conditions worsening further at over 60% across the country.

"Most of France is currently at its driest point in the past 30 years" said Nicolas Bruneau [tag Nicolas], co-Founder, at Reask. "Looking at the year so far, the number of Cat Nat triggered would be comparable to 2022 based on a SWI ERA5 threshold, and most regions have a 60 to 70% chance of conditions moving further into drought territory next month. Having this level of granular, near real-time data matters because it gives the market the ability to make informed decisions ahead of renewal season, rather than waiting until the full picture emerges in the autumn.”

"Working with Reask allows us to give our clients an early, data-led view of soil conditions well before the autumn renewal season," said Adrien de Tessières [tag Adrien], Managing Director at Howden Re International. "As this drought continues to build, having this kind of visibility means the market can plan ahead rather than react after the fact."

2026 is tracking towards one of the driest years French soils have experienced since reliable records began. We are monitoring the situation closely with our partner Howden Re and will continue to share updates as the season develops.