The forces shaping Europe's next casualty renewal
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European casualty treaty pricing is likely to face further pressure at the 1 January 2027 renewals as abundant capacity and softer property market conditions continue to push reinsurers towards casualty business, according to Wolfram-Ferdinand Schultz, Head of Casualty Treaty – Continental Europe at Howden Re in an interview with Intelligent Insurer.
The themes discussed in the interview were similar to those which he discussed at Intelligent Insurer’s Re/Insurance Outlook Europe 2026, where he joined the panel "Casualty Outlook: Data-Driven Underwriting and Exposure Management". The session examined casualty catastrophe losses, emerging long-tail risks, portfolio-level exposure management and how insurers and reinsurers are using analytics to support underwriting, capital allocation and risk transfer decisions.
Speaking with Intelligent Insurer, Schultz discussed the forces shaping the next phase of the casualty cycle, from capital deployment and alternative capacity to legal developments and emerging liability concerns.
The comments come at a pivotal point for the market. Strong reinsurer returns, record levels of dedicated capital and increasing competition have created favourable supply dynamics across many lines, with Schultz explaining "the price reduction on treaties is more than likely at a higher scale compared to 1/1 2026".
Whilst casualty remains fundamentally different from property, broader market conditions are increasingly influencing pricing outcomes. Schultz argues that the current environment is less about casualty fundamentals alone and more about where capital sees opportunity. "The capacity is available," he says, adding that "rate adequacy can still be observed", even as pricing comes under pressure.
The discussion also explores the distinctions between Europe and the US. Whilst casualty concerns such as reserve adequacy, litigation funding and inflation remain relevant, Schultz is clear that "the European market is definitely different from the American market", where casualty pricing continues to be shaped much more heavily by nuclear verdicts and reserve strain.
Importantly, he also cautions that current trends are not fixed. Capital allocation remains sensitive to developments elsewhere in the market. "If we have got an active hurricane season, things could swing very quickly," Schultz says, noting that non-casualty lines could ultimately have more influence on casualty pricing than casualty itself.
Beyond pricing, the interview examines several issues that market participants should monitor closely over the coming years. These include the implications of the EU Product Liability Directive 2024, which Schultz believes "will definitely have an impact on the legal environment", as well as the evolving debate around PFAS exposures.
On PFAS, he takes a measured view. Whilst acknowledging that "PFAS is a threat", Schultz argues that "the systemic exposure might be overrated", highlighting the importance of separating headline concerns from actual casualty market exposures.
The conversation provides valuable insight into how one of Europe's leading casualty reinsurance specialists is thinking about pricing, capacity and risk as the market approaches the next renewal cycle.
Read the full interview in Intelligent Insurer
Read Howden Re’s whitepaper Casualty in focus: The new EU Product Liability Directive