Howden Re’s 2026 Pre-Season Hurricane Outlook shows that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be quieter than usual. After several years of elevated activity, the outlook reflects a shift towards more balanced conditions across the Atlantic basin, according to early forecasts from major meteorological agencies and research groups.
These forecasting organisations are projecting lower storm counts and reduced accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), driven primarily by the expected development of El Niño conditions during the peak of hurricane season. El Niño typically increases upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic, making it harder for storms to form and intensify.
The average forecast across forecasting organisations currently points to:
- 13 named storms (40 MPH+)
- Six hurricanes (75 MPH+)
- Two major hurricanes (Category 3+, 111 MPH+)
This compares to the 1991–2020 NOAA climatological averages of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Atlantic sea surface temperatures have also moderated following the unusually warm conditions of 2023 and 2024. However, risk remains elevated in parts of the western Atlantic and along the US East Coast, where waters are forecast to stay warmer than average. These regions are typically less affected by El Niño-related wind shear and can still support rapid storm intensification close to landfall.
Anna Pergerson, Managing Director and Head of Catastrophe R&D at Howden Re, explains: “Seasonal forecasts provide useful context around the broader risk environment, but they don’t determine where storms will track or where losses will occur. Even in a below-average season, a single landfalling hurricane can drive significant insured losses.”
For the (re)insurance market, storm counts only tell part of the story. A Howden Re analysis found that ACE 60W, a regional subset of accumulated cyclone energy measuring storm activity west of 60° longitude, has historically been more closely linked to US insured losses than the number of storms in a season.
The report also explores several emerging themes shaping the 2026 outlook, including NOAA’s adoption of the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), the growing role of artificial intelligence in hurricane forecasting, and how changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions are influencing seasonal risk assessment.
While forecasts point towards a quieter season overall, the underlying risk environment remains elevated. Exposure growth along vulnerable coastlines, higher rebuilding costs, and the continued potential for rapid intensification mean that even a below-average season can still produce significant insured losses.
Download the full report to explore the latest forecasts, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) analysis, AI forecasting developments and the hurricane metrics that matter most to the (re)insurance market.