Super Typhoon Ragasa Puts Asia’s Resilience to the Test
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Super Typhoon Ragasa, the most powerful storm of the 2025 season, has already brought devastation to Taiwan and bore down on Hong Kong and southern China. Howden Re’s APAC and Analytics teams assess its impacts, what may come next, and how history helps frame the risks.
While Ragasa triggered Hong Kong’s highest No. 10 storm signal, as Typhoon Mangkhut did in 2018 which caused nearly HKD 3.7 billion in damage, initial assessments and public observations suggest the overall damage has been less severe than Mangkhut’s. This is thanks to early warnings, stronger preparation, and improved resilience measures.
Our initial view is that Ragasa could potentially be less costly than Mangkhut, even with Category 3 strength winds in Hong Kong and surrounding areas, the concern lies in the combination of high winds and storm surge, even if rainfall is forecast to be lower. Hong Kong is one of the few markets still heavily reliant on pro-rata reinsurance, meaning the potential impact to reinsurers in the region could be significant. Our analysis demonstrates no clear time trend in severe typhoon frequency impacting Hong Kong.
Taiwan Impact: Heavy Rainfall and Human Loss
Although Ragasa did not make landfall in Taiwan, its vast circulation brought intense rain to the island’s east. In Hualien, the collapse of a landslide dam triggered flash flooding into a downstream valley, leaving multiple casualties and forcing thousands to evacuate amid ongoing risks.
Our thoughts are with the people of Hualien and all those affected by this devastating tragedy. The loss of life and the hardship faced by local communities is deeply saddening. Historic parallels such as Typhoon Morakot (2009) and Typhoon Soudelor (2015), show how economic damages in Taiwan often far outweigh insured losses by factors of 20 to 50. However, for now, it appears that the worst-affected areas were rural, with very limited industrial presence, so insured losses are expected to remain modest.
Differing Outcomes Across Countries
Catastrophic surge and wind have been the hallmark of Hong Kong’s worst storms, such as the Great Typhoon of 1937 and Wanda in 1962. While storm surge remains the key loss driver, it is important to note that modern flood defences would likely prevent the scale of devastation seen in those historic cases...Papaspiliou continued: As Ragasa pushes inland to northern Vietnam and Laos, forecasts point to flooding, landslides, and infrastructure disruption as the system interacts with mountainous terrain. Agricultural regions may face crop damage and prolonged recovery challenges, particularly given the limited insurance penetration in these areas.