Howden Re’s Climate Overview in Brazil and South America: Climate variability sharpens as Brazil enters 2026
Howden Re Brazil, in collaboration with MeteoIA, has released its Q4 2025 Climate Impacts Report, which presents an integrated view of how Brazil and South America closed out 2025 and what is forecasted for the summer of 2026. The picture that emerges is one of heightened variability rather than uniform stress. A weak La Niña, persistently high global temperatures and interacting climate teleconnections combined to produce sharply contrasting rainfall and temperature patterns across regions.
“Between September and December 2025, rainfall surpluses in the South and parts of the Amazon sat alongside persistent deficits across the Southeast, Centre-West and interior Northeast”, said Antônio Jorge da Mota Rodrigues, Head of Howden Re Brazil. “These imbalances intensified drought conditions, constrained reservoir recovery and contributed to a sharp rise in burned areas, particularly in the Cerrado and Caatinga. At the same time, the frequency of extreme events increased, exposing infrastructure, agriculture and energy systems to overlapping climate pressures.”
From seasonal transition to structural stress
The spring transition highlighted how quickly conditions can shift. Neutral ENSO conditions gave way to weak La Niña, reshaping atmospheric circulation and driving high spatial variability in rainfall. Southern Brazil experienced repeated episodes of above-average precipitation, while much of the Centre-West and Southeast saw rainfall remain at or below climatological norms well into the start of the rainy season.
Temperature patterns were equally uneven. Early spring brought milder conditions in many regions, but by December warming had intensified, with above-average maximum temperatures across large parts of the South, Southeast and Centre-West. This combination of delayed rainfall and rising heat increased evaporative demand, reinforcing water stress in already vulnerable basins.
Extremes compound across cities, fields and ecosystems
Extreme heat confirmed 2025 as one of Brazil’s hottest years on record, with repeated temperatures above 38°C, new urban heat records and sharp thermal swings linked to cold fronts. These conditions, combined with prolonged drought, drove a record 684,000 km² of burned area, particularly across the Cerrado and Caatinga. At the same time, a succession of severe storms, hail, tornadoes and extratropical cyclones between September and December caused widespread disruption to energy networks, infrastructure and agriculture, highlighting Brazil’s rising exposure to short-duration, high-impact climate events.
Agriculture under pressure
Brazil’s agricultural sector faced rising climate risk in late 2025, with disrupted planting, crop damage and heightened exposure for the 2026 off-season maize crop across several regions. The report highlights that yields are now shaped less by seasonal averages and more by rainfall timing and extremes, making continuous climate monitoring and adaptive management essential to resilience.
Q1 2026 outlook: contrasts persist
Looking ahead, the summer of 2026 is expected to maintain strong regional contrasts. Forecasts point to below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures across much of the Northeast, with continued limits on water replenishment in the Southeast and Centre-West. In contrast, the North is likely to concentrate higher rainfall volumes, while the South may alternate between wet episodes and heat.
These signals suggest ongoing pressure on water resources, agriculture and energy systems, particularly in regions already carrying drought deficits into the new year. The report emphasises that uncertainty remains elevated, shaped by the interaction of ENSO, the Antarctic Oscillation and tropical ocean conditions, reinforcing the value of scenario-based risk planning.
Antônio Jorge da Mota Rodrigues, concludes: “Brazil’s climate risk is no longer shaped by isolated events but by the compounding interaction of heat, drought, fire and severe storms occurring in rapid succession. This environment requires insurers and risk-exposed sectors to move beyond reactive assessment towards continuous, forward-looking climate intelligence, where data-driven monitoring and resilience planning are essential to managing physical risk and economic exposure as volatility intensifies.”
